25/08/2026
The global geopolitical order is undergoing a complete overhaul. The strategic rivalry between the United States and China, the battle for technological leadership, and the fragmentation of the international financial system are giving rise to a scenario of uncertainty.
To address this topic, Pedro Baños, colonel and geopolitical analyst, gave a masterclass lecture during the XXX Mapfre Global Risks International Seminar, where he analyzed the key aspects of the new world order, the strategic movements of the main powers, and the risks arising from this reality.
For Baños, understanding the current moment requires looking beyond the specific conflicts. “We are not in a period of change, but in an absolute change of era,” he warned, pointing out that the world is moving towards a new configuration in which China will play a central role.
China and international leadership
During his presentation, Baños outlined a revealing comparison: unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, whose rivalry with the United States was mainly ideological and strategic, China competes today in all areas: economic, commercial, technological, financial, and military. Technology is one of the most important fronts. The development of advanced microchips, AI, quantum computing, robotics, and the space race have become essential elements of the competition between powers, in which the Asian giant has reduced the historical advantage of the West in strategic sectors. “Everything we’re experiencing is related to that,” he stated.
“Up until recently, the main exporter to most countries around the world was the United States. But trade history shows us that whoever has the best technology and can sell cheaper than others ends up dominating the markets. And the thing is, that in just over 20 years, right now the main exporter for most countries around the world is China,” he asserted. In this context, he highlighted the importance of technological self-sufficiency and supply chain control, especially in critical sectors such as semiconductors and strategic raw materials.
The technological and financial battle
Baños pointed out that, beyond the military sphere, the great confrontation of our time is taking place in the economic and financial arena: “That’s where today’s great battle is taking place.” The analyst explained that the dollar’s hegemony has for decades been one of the main U.S. weapons. “Everyone wanted U.S. dollars, either as the main reserve currency or in Treasury bonds. But those days are coming to an end,” he warned.
The progress of new players and the search for alternatives to the current economic order are driving a progressive transformation. The reduction of dependence on the dollar, the growth of the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, alongside other new members that have been added in recent years with the aim of strengthening their influence on global governance and diversifying international economic relations) and the emergence of new trade mechanisms are part of a reconfiguration of the international system. In summary, according to the expert, “geopolitics is the concentrated expression of geoeconomics.”
Another of the key issues Baños addressed was the importance of strategic resources. Rare earths, (as Manuel Regueiro explained during his presentation at the same event) including tungsten and certain critical minerals, have become fundamental pieces of the technology and defense industry and, therefore, of the global geo-strategy jigsaw. Baños spoke about the undeniable Western dependence on China in this area and explained that the control of these resources is part of a new global struggle.
The expert also emphasized the fact that the technology struggle is not limited to the possession of resources and the manufacture of products, but also involves the knowledge domain and innovation: the ability to develop new technologies will probably determine which countries will have the greatest influence over others in the future.
Indirect conflicts between major powers
To properly frame this international situation, we need to analyze the main international scenarios, such as Ukraine or the tensions in the Middle East, which more broadly explain the confrontations between the major powers. According to Coronel Baños, many of these conflicts can’t be understood solely from a local perspective, but rather as scenarios where global strategic interests collide.
During his speech, he also reflected on Europe’s position in this context. Increased defense spending, the pursuit of strategic autonomy, and the debate over the balance between security and well-being dominate the international agenda and will most likely continue to do so in the coming years. However, the analyst also warned about the risks of a dynamic that’s excessively focused on rearmament, and argued that security must be addressed from a broader perspective. “I’m a military guy, and I want my country to have the best military possible, but that doesn’t mean being military,” he explained. In this regard, he recalled that international stability doesn’t depend solely on arms capacity, but also on diplomacy, cooperation, and prevention.
Peace as an objective
“It has cost us a lot to create a welfare state, and we’re entering a bellicose and armament frenzy worldwide,” warned Pedro Baños in the final part of his talk. As a conclusion, the military expert appealed to the need to correctly interpret the current historical moment and avoid simplistic responses to complex problems. “The best way to prepare for peace is through peace,” he said. “The objective must be to preserve stability and avoid any escalation that could jeopardize the economic and social progress that we’ve achieved.” He closed his intervention with a call to prudence and to avoid military options being the first response. “Let’s continue to ensure that our country is one of peace and prosperity,” he concluded.
If you want to hear the full lecture, you can watch it on our website.
