Gonzalo Sanz Segovia | 11/09/2025
The global landscape is more volatile than ever. New models of opposing economic blocs are creating barriers that hamper market activity. Supply chains are facing major stability challenges and companies are being forced to redefine their global strategies.
We’ve experienced largely fluid globalization for a long time, but the world order is now giving way to a new geopolitical stage that is referred to as “geoeconomics”. Economies have ceased to operate under an integrated system and have instead aligned with blocs with divergent commercial and strategic interests.
This transformation is altering the map of international trade and rewriting current business risks. Today, geoeconomic disputes are characterized by technological restrictions, regulatory barriers, and the imposition of sanctions and tariffs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that rising geopolitical tensions are driving a disruption in global trade, investment, and technology flows.
Interdependence, once a guarantee of stability, is now seen as a vulnerability. Multinationals, especially those with supply chains spread across different countries, must adapt to this new, more uncertain and volatile reality.
More pressure on supply chains
One of the most obvious effects of fragmentation is the increasing pressure on global supply chains. To reduce exposure to geoeconomic conflicts, companies are taking measures ranging from supplier diversification and preemptive stockpiling of key components to redesigning logistics routes.
Efficiency and economic protection are no longer the only objectives: resilience to unexpected events is now a priority. Sectors most dependent on critical materials or international markets, such as automotive, technology, and energy, are the most affected. For this reason, they are shifting toward more robust models that offer greater security against potential geopolitical contingencies.
At high-level forums, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has explained that no country has a complete view of global supply chains. That means it’s crucial to foster international cooperation and use multilateral tools to strengthen resilience to unexpected risks and events.
Less stability, more planning
The current situation has complicated business risk management. Companies are being forced to incorporate geostrategic variables into their decision-making, from the selection of production locations to the signing of trade agreements. Friend-shoring and near-shoring models are gaining traction.
Decisions that were previously based solely on economic or regulatory factors must now consider political, diplomatic, and even military considerations. Planning capacity and the ability to anticipate are fundamental assets in the current situation. As the World Economic Forum indicates in its 2024 Global Risk Report, simmering geopolitical tensions coupled with technology will generate new security risks.
Although some experts are already talking about “deglobalization”, what seems to be emerging is a globalization with limits. This process could become the new paradigm of global trade: more selective, conditioned by political affinities, and subject to regulations that prioritize security.
A clear example of this phenomenon is the recent US strategy to secure its autonomy in key sectors. Although this is a specific case, it reflects a growing trend in both developed and emerging markets.
The world in blocs
The world is fragmenting into blocs that define their own rules, including value chains and technological alliances. Recently, the United States instigated a policy of partial decoupling from China with the aim of protecting some strategic industries. This translates into restrictions on technology exports, controls on foreign investment, and subsidies for industrial relocation. Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the European Union have joined this bloc, although the EU did so from a perspective of strategic autonomy.
China is promoting its technological and energy self-sufficiency, while strengthening ties with non-Western allies through initiatives such as the Belt and Road program, aimed at fostering transcontinental cooperation. It is also signing trade agreements with countries in Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Russia, currently isolated by Western sanctions, is seeking new alliances outside the Western-dominated global financial system.
Meanwhile, countries like Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Mexico are trying to maintain a neutral stance, promoting a parallel financial architecture without severing their economic ties with Europe or the United States, with the result that this group has become a competitive arena between blocs.
Fragmentation could have a significant impact on the global economy. According to a WTO study, if the world were divided into two distinct trading blocs, global GDP would decline by 5%.
The new normal
As we’ve seen, multinationals are adapting to these new scenarios. International treaties are increasingly based on security and resilience, promoting more segmented trade, where supply chains seek both geographic and political proximity.
This requires a profound reconfiguration of their business models. Adapting to change is no longer enough; companies must anticipate it, understand its structural causes, and design agile and sustainable responses that offer them adequate protection.
